Topic: Israeli bombing of Gaza Strip.
The war situation in Gaza has changed. After the "Operation Cast Lead" lasted for 22 days, Israel announced a unilateral ceasefire from 2 am on the 18th (8: 00 Beijing time). According to the latest news, Hamas has also responded by announcing a one-week cease-fire, provided that Israeli troops withdraw from the Gaza during this period.
On January 18th, Israeli soldiers evacuated from the Gaza Strip arrived at the border. On the same day, the Israeli military said that it began to withdraw its troops from the Gaza that night, but did not specify how many troops it would withdraw at this stage. Xinhua News Agency (photo by Rafael)
Rolling report Memorabilia of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict
Why did Israel stop?
Why did Israel take the lead in making a unilateral ceasefire decision at this time?
First, Israel believes that the strategic goal of "Operation Cast Lead" in the Gaza has been basically achieved. After 22 days of military operations, Hamas’s effective forces have been destroyed; Second, while "Operation Cast Lead" swept the Hamas, it also caused a large number of civilian casualties, which led to the escalation of the humanitarian crisis. Israel has already felt the great pressure of international public opinion; Third, there are only two days left before the inauguration ceremony of the new US President Barack Obama. Israel does not want to make the situation very stiff. It must stop and look at the attitude of the new US leader and observe the international trend. Fourth, Egypt’s mediation failed to make the two sides reach an agreement on the terms of the ceasefire. Israel took the lead in announcing a unilateral ceasefire to break the deadlock, and there were also considerations for winning the initiative. On the one hand, if Hamas continues to use force, it will put itself in a passive position; On the other hand, Israeli troops are still stationed in Gaza, and Israeli Prime Minister Olmert has indicated that Israel will not set a timetable for withdrawing troops from the Gaza for the time being. If the Palestinian armed factions do not stop rocket attacks, Israel has the right to resume military operations. At the same time, Israel has no intention of opening Gaza’s border through negotiations.
An Huihou, China’s former ambassador to Egypt, pointed out that in this way, Israel not only has the ability to resume attacks at any time, but also can use the siege during the unilateral ceasefire to further weaken Hamas’s strength, making it difficult for Hamas to obtain financial and material supplies in the short term.
In addition, there are domestic political considerations. Li Weijian, director of the west asia and africa Research Office of Shanghai Institute of International Studies, analyzed, "Israel will face a general election. Before this military action, public opinion in Israel was unfavorable to the ruling party. Through the military strike against Hamas, the support rate of the ruling party was improved, but if it continues to fight, public opinion may develop in another direction. In addition, if military operations continue, the Israeli general election may be postponed, which may also have an adverse impact on the ruling party. "
Of course, before the ceasefire was announced, Israel had done some "homework". On 16th, Israeli Foreign Minister Livni rushed to Washington and signed a memorandum of understanding with the United States aimed at cracking down on arms smuggling activities in Gaza, which to some extent "guaranteed" Israel’s political and military decision-making.
On January 18, 2009, the Israeli Prime Minister said that Israel has the right to restart military operations in Gaza. On January 18, in the northern part of the Gaza Strip, Palestinians inspected houses bombed by Israeli troops. On the same day, Israeli Prime Minister Olmert said that although Israel has implemented a unilateral ceasefire in the Gaza, it has the right to resume military operations if the relevant Palestinian armed factions do not stop rocket attacks. Xinhua News Agency reporter Nasser photo
Why did Hamas follow up?
Israeli retreat is the best way to advance, and Hamas announced a week-long ceasefire later that day after making a short tough stance, which also had its own considerations.
On the one hand, Hamas, which is badly weakened, really intends to stop. It needs to save its strength, recover its vitality and get supplies through a ceasefire. On the other hand, if we continue to fight, it will be considered too extreme and passive by the outside world.
Li Weijian pointed out that there is also a face problem. "Hamas does not admit that he is a loser, and it will not lose face to declare a ceasefire now. In fact, there are also differences within Hamas. Hamas leaders outside Gaza refused to cease fire and strongly advocated continuing to fight. The attitude of Hamas leaders in Gaza began to ease, hoping to cease fire as soon as possible through international mediation. "
How will the situation develop?
Now, although both Israel and Hamas have the intention to stop, can their own small plans behind the ceasefire be realized? Where is the situation likely to develop?
The ceasefire has naturally created conditions for ending the conflict in Gaza. An Huihou believes that next, the parties concerned may start further negotiations and seek long-term solutions to the long-term ceasefire, monitoring mechanism and humanitarian relief. Although there is the possibility of reaching a compromise between the two sides, the asking prices of the two sides are not completely consistent. Israel hopes to completely curb rocket attacks from Hamas, cut off Hamas’s weapons supply under international supervision, and let the relatively moderate Fatah replace Hamas’s position in Gaza. Hamas, on the other hand, hopes that Israel will withdraw its troops, open its ports, ensure Hamas’s control over these passages, and rally.
Although both Israel and Hamas need a ceasefire, neither side will compromise easily. Whether the situation in Gaza can be calm depends on the game between the parties. Li Weijian said, "The unilateral ceasefire announced by the two sides this time is not a real ceasefire, just not fighting and letting the international community mediate. To truly reach a ceasefire, both sides need to sign a long-term ceasefire agreement. " An Huihou said, "The result of bargaining will largely depend on the extent to which Hamas has been weakened and the performance of Hamas’s public opinion support rate in Gaza after the war." The attitude of the new Obama administration in the United States will also become an important factor. (Reporter Yang Liqun Zaifei)
Editor: Wang Yuxi
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